The hottest plastics rebounded in the short term,

2022-08-21
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The short-term rebound in plastic supply tension will continue to improve

despite the recent downward pressure on plastic futures prices, considering the gradual strengthening of cost support and the approaching stocking cycle of traders and downstream enterprises, it is expected that the lower support level is 9800 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to hold short positions below 9950 yuan/ton in the early stage cautiously

first, petrochemical supply gradually returned to normal. Since the serious oil leakage in the oil pipeline system or the rupture of the oil pipe in May, the plastic futures price has gone out of a mid-term rebound trend supported by the shortage of petrochemical inventory. However, due to the poor readiness of traders and agricultural film enterprises to prepare goods, the inventory consumption has also slowed down synchronously, so the petrochemical inventory is in the channel of shock and slow recovery. As of the 19th, the inventory of PE petrochemical in East China continued to rise by 7.6%, of which the inventory of HDPE and LLDPE rose significantly, which has significantly recovered compared with the beginning of May, and the supply tension has improved. With the resumption of production of Fushun Petrochemical and Baotou Shenhua units in early July and the production of new units of Wuhan Petrochemical, the market supply tension will continue to improve, which will bring some pressure to the plastic price

secondly, Wuhan Petrochemical has a successful trial production and will be fully put into production in the near future. On June 23, the 300000 ton HDPE unit of Wuhan ethylene was successfully put into operation, marking the countdown to the commencement of the 800000 ton/year ethylene project in Wuhan. Recently, another 300000 ton full density unit will be put into operation, which will undoubtedly have a greater impact on the l1401 contract. The short-term pressure on the plastic price is still large, and it is difficult to rebound temporarily

finally, the future cost support is gradually strengthened. In the early stage, the international oil price fell sharply due to the impact of the Federal Reserve or its gradual withdrawal from QE and the banking crisis in China (601988). Recently, it has stabilized and rebounded slightly. Although the overall supply of crude oil is still abundant, OPEC's crude oil production continues to grow, and its accuracy of each material is relatively accurate. As of May, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate has increased to 2.97%. In addition, the crude oil production of non OPEC countries Canada and Russia has continued to grow steadily, and Brazil's deep-sea crude oil is produced. It is expected that Brazil's crude oil production will reach 3.6 million barrels/day in 2015, At present, the U.S. crude oil inventory continues to maintain a high level. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the global crude oil supply is growing steadily. In addition, the economy of China and Europe is still in a state of crisis, and the demand is difficult to increase significantly. The situation of global crude oil oversupply will gradually intensify, which will bring greater pressure on the future international oil price. However, in the medium term, as the United States has entered the peak season of gasoline consumption, the startup rate of American refineries will continue to grow, and crude oil will also enter the stage of destocking. International oil prices will still rebound in the medium term, so it is expected that there is a high probability that international oil prices will remain strong in July; As of June 26, Zhao Yingmin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of environmental protection of "linear production", said that the cost estimate was 9837 yuan/ton, and the period price was 508 yuan/ton higher than the cost price. In the short term, the cost support is not strong, and there is a problem below. 9. Control experiment method: the computer automatically controls the experiment process in a certain space, but as the oil price gradually rises to a high level, the cost will support the plastic price again

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